Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Hamilton on China's Demographic Transition

Malinvestimentghost cities and condos, combined with an inevitable rise of the dependency ratio is a state-engineered recipe for trouble:
And China has more 45- to 50-year-olds today than it has 5- to 10-year olds. That means that in another decade or so, the number of people retiring will be greater than the number of new young people coming into the labor force. For the last ten years, the number of new 20-year-olds was greater in each succeeding year. For the next ten years, the number of new 20-year-olds is going to be fewer in each succeeding year.

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