Monday, October 25, 2010

Economics Bloggers Pessimistic According to Latest Kauffman Survey

The new Kauffman Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers (of which I'm part) is out. According to the press release:
For the fourth quarter in a row, the nation's top economics bloggers have conveyed a steadily deteriorating view of the U.S. economy in responses to a Ewing Marion Kauffman Foundation survey released today. In the fourth Kauffman Economic Outlook: A Quarterly Survey of Leading Economics Bloggers respondents' outlook on the U.S. economy is more pessimistic than in any previous quarterly survey in 2010, with 99 percent saying that conditions are mixed, facing recession or in recession. When asked about the probability of a double-dip recession in the United States, the average response is a 41 percent probability; two-fifths see a 20 percent probability, and opinion declines toward higher probabilities.
The majority of bloggers is betting that the American economy will experience a combination of higher inflation and real interest rates and positive but slow growth on a three-year horizon:

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